东方电缆：合同负债高增，海上业务交付加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) [1] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 932 million yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter saw revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 58.3%, although it experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.6% [1] - The company’s offshore cable systems and marine engineering revenue reached 1.23 billion yuan in Q3, up 64.5% year-on-year, driven by accelerated downstream offshore wind project commencement [1] - The company’s on-hand orders as of October 18 amounted to approximately 9.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase from August [1] - The company is actively enhancing its ESG framework, which is expected to improve international competitiveness and facilitate overseas order acquisition [1] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.7 billion yuan, with a 25.2% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 932 million yuan, up 13.4% [1] - Q3 revenue was 2.63 billion yuan, a 58.3% increase year-on-year, but a 4.6% decrease quarter-on-quarter; net profit for Q3 was 288 million yuan, a 40.3% increase year-on-year, with a 24.4% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] Business Operations - Offshore cable systems and marine engineering generated 1.23 billion yuan in Q3, a 64.5% year-on-year increase, while land cable systems generated 1.39 billion yuan, up 53.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s on-hand orders reached approximately 9.24 billion yuan, with land cable orders increasing by 8.1% and marine engineering orders decreasing by 2.5% [1] Financial Metrics - The company’s expense ratio in Q3 was 6.82%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [1] - As of the end of Q3, contract liabilities were 859 million yuan, reflecting a 194% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 162% increase year-on-year [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.24 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 32, 22, and 17 times [1]