YTG(000975) 海通证券·2024-10-24 09:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 12.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.727 billion yuan, up 54% year-on-year [4] - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, although there was a slight decline in production volume [4] - The conversion of exploration rights to mining rights for the Yulong Mining project is expected to enhance the company's silver business and open up further growth opportunities [4][5] - The company has completed the acquisition of Osino, adding approximately 127.2 tons of gold resources, indicating a strong growth potential [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49% [4] - The average selling prices for gold and silver in Q3 2024 were 569 yuan/gram and 7.5 yuan/gram, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 24% and 30% [4] - The company’s sales costs for gold and silver were 142.80 yuan/gram and 2.75 yuan/gram for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to experience rapid profit growth over the next three years, with projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being 0.86, 0.98, and 1.20 yuan per share, respectively [5][6] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 22.30 and 23.15 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 26-27 times for 2024 [5] Business Segmentation and Profitability - The company’s revenue from gold and silver segments is projected to grow significantly, with gold revenue expected to reach 4.592 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - The gross margin for the gold business is anticipated to be around 74.28% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [7] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, with an average EPS of 0.93 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 26.8 [8]