Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on ZTO and JD Logistics, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the logistics sector [19][25][26]. Core Insights - The Double 11 shopping festival is expected to drive positive parcel volume growth, supported by creative promotions from e-commerce players and a trade-in program for home appliances [5][12]. - The integration of logistics services between Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall and JD Logistics is anticipated to enhance the express parcel business by attracting more merchants [6][9]. - The express parcel delivery industry is experiencing a normalization in pricing due to regulatory guidelines aimed at reducing destructive competition, with some companies implementing selective price hikes [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September, domestic parcel volume growth was robust, with a 19% year-over-year increase, outperforming e-commerce growth [2][9]. - The average selling price (ASP) for express parcel delivery decreased by 4.6% year-over-year, indicating improved pricing trends as the industry prepares for peak season [10][11]. E-commerce Trends - China's online retail sales grew by 8.6% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2024, with a notable acceleration in growth in September [2][11]. - Home appliance sales surged by 20.5% year-over-year in September, driven by a government trade-in subsidy program [12][13]. Logistics Developments - Reverse logistics is on the rise, with its volume increasing from less than 2% in 2023 to 4-5% of total industry volume in the first half of 2024 [7][8]. - ZTO has gained market share in live-streaming platforms, with parcel volume from these platforms increasing to 35% of ZTO's total volume in 2023 [8].
摩根大通：中国物流、快递包裹和电子商务双十一能否预示价格稳定和销量增长_专家电话会议和 9 月行业数据提供见解
电子商务和信息化司·2024-10-24 10:13