MILKYWAY(603713) 华源证券·2024-10-25 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's freight forwarding and distribution business continues to show improvement, with a 15% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth and a 12% increase in net profit for Q3 2024, maintaining a trend of sequential improvement [2] - The CCFI index, which reflects shipping market conditions, increased by 127.3% year-on-year and 38.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, positively impacting the company's gross profit per container and freight forwarding revenue [2] - The company is strategically expanding its chemical distribution capabilities through acquisitions and international subsidiaries, enhancing its long-term growth potential [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 95.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and a net profit of 4.9 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 35.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, up 19.9% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1%, primarily due to weak demand in chemical logistics [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 6.15 billion yuan, 7.14 billion yuan, and 8.41 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 42.7%, 16.1%, and 17.7% [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency by innovating business models and expanding service offerings, including online platforms and new transportation methods [2] - The strategic plan aims to establish seven business clusters across China and explore new fields such as new energy and new materials [2] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the industry is approximately 15.7x, while the company is positioned as a leader in chemical logistics with a clear business model [2]