中国经济数据点评（2024年三季度）：政策效应初现端倪

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decrease to 4.6% in Q3 compared to Q2[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.0%, indicating a 0.6 percentage point difference from the real GDP growth rate[2] Demand and Consumption - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery, with retail sales growth rising to 3.2% in September, up 1.1 percentage points from August[6] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption in major categories, with home appliances and automobiles seeing increases of 20.5% and 4.1% respectively[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment notably increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 9.3%[4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 1.7 percentage points to 9.7%, reversing a declining trend since March[5] Industrial Production - Industrial production accelerated, with the value-added of large-scale industries increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in September, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The industrial capacity utilization rate slightly increased to 75.1%, still below the peak of 78.4% in Q2 2021[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment decline narrowed to -10.1%, with new construction down by 20.0%[4] - Property sales showed improvement, with the decline in sales area and amount reducing to 11% and 16.3% respectively in September[4] Future Outlook - The GDP growth rate is expected to rise to around 5.3% in Q4, driven by improved domestic demand and ongoing policy support[9] - A series of incremental policies are anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate economic activity in the coming quarters[9]