CNANO(688116) 东吴证券·2024-10-26 15:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations with revenue of 390 million yuan, down 5.6% YoY but up 16% QoQ, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 67 million yuan, down 6% YoY but up 9% QoQ [2] - Q3 shipments increased by nearly 10% QoQ, with full-year shipments expected to grow by over 40% YoY, reaching 80,000+ tons [2] - Q3 single-ton profit remained stable QoQ, with full-year single-ton net profit expected to maintain at 0.3 million yuan+ [2] - Q3 operating cash flow turned positive, and capital expenditures slowed down [2] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downward due to intensified industry competition, with expected net profits of 270, 360, and 460 million yuan, respectively [2] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-3 revenue was 1 billion yuan, down 1.7% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million yuan, up 13% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 revenue was 390 million yuan, down 5.6% YoY but up 16% QoQ, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 67 million yuan, down 6% YoY but up 9% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q1-3 operating cash flow was 70 million yuan, down 62% YoY, with Q3 operating cash flow of 20 million yuan, down 81% YoY but up 248% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q1-3 capital expenditures were 290 million yuan, down 44% YoY, with Q3 capital expenditures of 20 million yuan, down 79% YoY and 78% QoQ [2] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 1.52, 1.862, and 2.339 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 8.24%, 22.53%, and 25.59% [1] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company forecasts are 271.24, 357.46, and 464.38 million yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -8.72%, 31.79%, and 29.91% [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 0.79, 1.04, and 1.35 yuan per share, respectively [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios are 38.62x, 29.30x, and 22.56x, respectively [1] Market Data - Closing price: 30.40 yuan [4] - 52-week low/high: 15.45/34.28 yuan [4] - P/B ratio: 3.83x [4] - Market cap: 10.475 billion yuan [4] Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 ROE forecasts are 9.12%, 10.84%, and 12.48%, respectively [9] - 2024-2026 ROIC forecasts are 6.60%, 7.92%, and 9.40%, respectively [9] - 2024-2026 P/B ratios are 3.61x, 3.25x, and 2.87x, respectively [9] Industry and Company Outlook - The company is a leader in carbon nanotubes, with product structure improvements expected to gradually restore profitability [2] - Single-wall carbon nanotubes are expected to contribute to profits starting in 2025 [2]