燕京啤酒：盈利持续改善，需求提振可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in dining demand and the continued growth of its U8 flagship product, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 increasing by 6.6%, 6.4%, and 6.4% respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [1] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.4473 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price per ton of beer in Q3 2024 was approximately 4,201.98 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 0.06% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 47.99%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 11.04% [1] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 15.152 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%, and net profits of 953 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [3][2] - For 2025 and 2026, revenues are projected to be 16.128 billion yuan and 17.157 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.293 billion yuan and 1.609 billion yuan respectively [3][2]