高盛：通货再膨胀分歧_ 美国例外论持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on US and Asian equities, a "Neutral" (N) rating on Japan, and an "Underweight" (UW) rating on Europe for the 3-month horizon [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with US equities reaching new all-time highs driven by positive macro data, while many developed markets (DMs) outside the US remain significantly below their previous highs [1][4]. - The strong performance of US equities is supported by solid retail sales and improved macro surprises, contrasting with weaker trends in Europe and Japan [1][4]. - Emerging markets (EMs), particularly China, have shown signs of recovery, with September activity data surpassing expectations [1][4]. - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US growth, with cyclical sectors outperforming alongside rising inflation, while European equities are downgraded to a 3% EPS growth forecast for 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - US equities have outperformed, with flows into US equities being strong year-to-date, particularly compared to other developed markets [1][4]. - The positioning for US small caps has increased, with net long positioning on Russell 2000 reaching the highest level since 2021 [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The Risk Appetite Indicator closed at 0.3, the highest level since July, indicating increased risk appetite among investors [1][4]. - Macro surprises in the US have turned more positive since October, contrasting with negative trends in other major DMs [1][4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in US and Asian equities, with a neutral stance on Japan and an underweight position on Europe for the 3-month horizon [3][4]. - The S&P 500 is projected to deliver a total return of only 3% per annum over the next 10 years, despite its attractiveness in the near term [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - Current valuation metrics indicate that the S&P 500 is at a 95th percentile expensiveness relative to its 10-year history, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.0x [19][20]. - The report notes that US 10-year government bonds yield 4.1%, placing them in the 91st percentile of their historical range [19][20].