高盛：印度股票_应对疲软时期；降低市场权重

Investment Rating - The report lowers the investment rating for Indian equities from overweight to neutral, indicating a cautious stance due to slowing growth and high valuations [5][39]. Core Insights - Despite a structural positive outlook for Indian equities, economic growth and corporate profit growth are experiencing a cyclical slowdown, with real GDP growth expected at 6.5% for FY25, which is below consensus [5][8]. - The MSCI India index has rallied significantly, but high starting valuations at 24x forward earnings may constrain near-term upside, with historical data suggesting muted returns when valuations are elevated [5][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality companies with high earnings visibility amid the current economic environment, highlighting 20 Buy-rated stocks with strong fundamentals [5][44]. Summary by Sections Economic and Corporate Profit Growth Slowdown - Economic growth is slowing across various sectors, with GDP growth estimates revised down to 6.7% for CY24 and 6.5% for FY25, reflecting a contraction in government capex and mixed signals in consumption indicators [8][12]. - Earnings sentiment has worsened, with a notable number of companies missing profit estimates during the recent reporting season, leading to downward revisions in earnings growth expectations for CY24 and CY25 [14][20]. Valuation Concerns - Current valuations for MSCI India are at historical peaks, with a significant premium over regional indices, raising concerns about the risk-reward profile for investors [21][27]. - The report notes that high valuations combined with earnings downgrades typically lead to lower future returns, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the near term [21][23]. Sector Positioning - The report recommends reducing exposure to cyclical sectors and favoring domestic sectors with higher earnings visibility, such as autos, telecommunications, and insurance, while downgrading sectors like industrials and financials due to low visibility [39][43]. - The report highlights medium-term themes such as housing, clean energy, and tourism as potential areas for investment, indicating a focus on sectors with better demand visibility [48][51]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of external factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and regulatory measures by SEBI, which could affect market sentiment and trading activity [29][33]. - A significant outflow of foreign investment has been noted, with a shift in allocations from India to China, indicating changing investor sentiment in the region [24][26].