高盛：中国房地产周报_第 42 周报 - 交易进一步改善，二手房恢复上次高峰水平

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the China property sector, with specific recommendations for individual developers based on their performance and market conditions [49]. Core Insights - Property sales in approximately 75 cities are expected to decline by 7% year-over-year in October, an improvement from a 36% decline in September [3]. - The report highlights a 20% year-over-year decline in completions for October 2024, with a forecasted 13% decline for the full year [10][11]. - The primary market shows a 15% week-over-week increase in gross floor area (GFA) sold, with tier-1 cities outperforming [4]. - Secondary market transactions increased by 17% week-over-week and 18% year-over-year, indicating positive price expectations from agents and homeowners [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - New home sales volume increased by 15% week-over-week and year-over-year, with tier-1 and northern cities showing stronger performance [1]. - Secondary transactions averaged a 17% increase week-over-week and an 18% increase year-over-year, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]. Market Trends - The inventory balance decreased by 0.5% week-over-week and 7.1% from the end of 2023, with inventory months averaging 26.4 [9]. - The report notes that the average weekly volume of primary property sales in tier-1 cities was up 32% week-over-week and 22% year-over-year [4]. Developer Valuations - Offshore developers are trading at an average 32% discount to the end-2024 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at an 8% discount [13]. - The report suggests that the current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for developers are at downturn trough levels, indicating potential investment opportunities [13][14].