高盛：中国航空旅行复苏追踪_黄金周后机票价格表现低于预期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [1]. Core Insights - The air travel industry in China is experiencing a significant pullback in passenger traffic post-Golden Week, with domestic airfares decreasing over 15% year-on-year, reaching approximately 80% of 2019 levels, while international airfares have normalized to 105-110% of pre-COVID levels [1][3]. - Domestic passenger traffic is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, reaching 107% of 2019 levels, while international traffic is forecasted to rise by 63% year-on-year, reaching 83% of 2019 levels [1]. - Group tours, which accounted for 40% of pre-COVID outbound travelers, have only recovered to 19% of the same period in 2019, indicating a bottleneck in outbound travel demand [1][3]. Summary by Sections Airfare Performance - Domestic airfares have declined to -20% compared to 2019 levels post-Golden Week, while international airfares remain at +5-10% compared to 2019 [5][11]. - The overall flight numbers have recovered to +1% compared to 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. Passenger Traffic - Weekly air passenger traffic has deteriorated sharply post-Golden Week, dropping to only 110% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - Domestic flight numbers have recovered to +6% compared to 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [8]. Capacity Recovery - Capacity recovery for outbound destinations shows Malaysia and Singapore leading at 120% and 117% of 2019 levels, while the US has recovered the slowest at 29% [11][13]. - International flight capacity is expected to remain stagnant at 78% of 2019 levels [3]. Group Tour Recovery - Outbound group tour travelers to Singapore and Thailand have recovered the fastest, reaching 29% and 26% of 2019 levels, respectively, while Vietnam lags at 14% [1][14].