EASTMONEY(300059) 国泰君安·2024-10-27 17:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 28.61 CNY per share, up from the previous forecast of 16.20 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline in profits, which was in line with expectations. However, the market's recovery towards the end of Q3 has led to a significant improvement in trading activity, suggesting a potential surge in performance for Q4 [2][8]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue is primarily due to weak demand for equity funds, with a 27% year-on-year drop in fund distribution revenue, which significantly impacted overall revenue [8][9]. - The company’s investment income saw a substantial increase of 49% year-on-year, reaching 2.406 billion CNY, which helped mitigate the overall decline in performance [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the adjusted revenue (including investment income) was 9.710 billion CNY, down 3.87% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.042 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.69% year-on-year [8][9]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be adjusted to 0.57, 0.72, and 0.81 CNY respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [8][9]. Market Activity - The report notes that the trading volume and margin financing balance have significantly increased, with the average daily stock trading volume reaching 2 trillion CNY from early October to late October, indicating a recovery in market activity [8][9]. - The company’s securities trading volume reached 112.8 billion CNY by the end of Q3, marking a 74% year-on-year increase, which is expected to drive performance recovery [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a strong performance rebound in Q4 due to the active market conditions and increasing demand for wealth management services among residents [8][9]. - The company's financial model is expected to enhance its competitiveness in both B-end and C-end markets, further supporting growth [8][9].