摩根士丹利：美国股票策略_每周热身_坚持周期性股票，因为金融股脱颖而出

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cyclical sectors, particularly Financials, which have been upgraded based on strong earnings performance and favorable market conditions [1][6][15]. Core Insights - The cyclical shift and Financials upgrade are supported by strong earnings results, with 92% of large-cap banks beating operating EPS and 100% exceeding revenue expectations [1][6][8]. - The S&P 500 has shown a discerning market reaction to earnings beats, with a median T+1-day relative performance of +2.3% for EPS beats, indicating a more favorable environment for cyclical stocks [1][6][7]. - The consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards, but expectations for growth remain at 9% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, suggesting potential for recovery in earnings [1][36][37]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Financials have been the standout sector, with a 5.6% increase since October 7, compared to a 3.0% rise in the S&P 500 [1][6]. - The broader 3Q earnings results show that only 14% of S&P 500 companies have reported, but the market has reacted positively to earnings beats, rewarding them more significantly than in previous quarters [1][6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a rotation towards a Trump win scenario in the equity markets, with implications for cyclical stocks and small caps [5][15]. - The report highlights that institutional investors remain under-exposed to Financials, indicating potential for further upside in this sector [1][6]. Earnings Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for 2024 is now converging with the report's estimate of $239, reflecting a downward adjustment in expectations [1][9]. - Earnings revisions breadth for 2025 is outperforming historical seasonality, suggesting a stabilization in expectations as the year-end approaches [1][9][11].