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济川药业:环比表现改善,核心品种短期增长有望向好
600566JUMPCAN(600566) 国金证券·2024-10-28 01:44

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is currently digesting the impact of a high base, but its R&D and business development pipeline are expected to gradually materialize, empowering future growth [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 11.19% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.903 billion yuan, down 2.13% [1][3]. - The gross margin slightly declined to 78.53% in Q3 2024, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, likely due to the ongoing impact of centralized procurement on certain products [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.771 billion yuan, down 7.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 565 million yuan, down 6.58% [1]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards to 2.698 billion yuan, 2.980 billion yuan, and 3.307 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -4%, 10%, and 11% respectively [3]. Operational Analysis - The sales expense ratio continued to decline, reaching 32.77% in Q3 2024, a decrease of 4.84 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming transition of Pudilan Oral Liquid to a dual-cross model, which may further expand its outpatient market [2]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2.93 yuan, 3.23 yuan, and 3.59 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 9 times [3].