TINCI(002709) Guolian Securities·2024-10-28 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance, with a 26.90% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 8.863 billion yuan, and an 80.69% drop in net profit to 338 million yuan [2][6] - The company's integrated layout is expected to enhance cost advantages, with a focus on lithium salt and iron phosphate as core product lines, and a self-supply ratio of over 97% for key materials [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.413 billion yuan, down 17.52% year-on-year but up 14.26% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 101 million yuan, down 78.25% year-on-year and down 18.15% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 17.90%, a decrease of 6.42 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.87%, down 8.69 percentage points year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 12.608 billion yuan, 17.379 billion yuan, and 22.531 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -18.2%, +37.8%, and +29.6% respectively; net profit forecasts are 518 million yuan, 1.208 billion yuan, and 2.027 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -72.6%, +133.2%, and +67.8% respectively [9][10] - The company is expected to have significant profit elasticity as it recovers from the current downturn, maintaining the "Buy" rating [9]