美畅股份：销量环比下降，盈利能力仍具优势

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the diamond wire industry, with carbon steel wire profitability significantly better than the industry average The mass production of tungsten wire will further consolidate the company's cost advantage in the tungsten diamond wire sector [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1 89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43 2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79 7% [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 410 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35 1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 5 961 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 92 6% [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 4 7%, mainly affected by the decline in diamond wire product prices and accounting standard adjustments [2] - The company's diamond wire sales volume in Q3 2024 was 26 088 million km, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22 5%, mainly due to the decline in silicon wafer production [2] - The company's comprehensive average price of diamond wire in Q3 2024 was about 15 6 yuan/km, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 16% [2] - The company's tungsten wire production line with a monthly capacity of 1 million km was put into production in Q3 2024, and the quality indicators such as strength and length have reached industry-leading levels [2] - The penetration rate of tungsten diamond wire is expected to exceed 50% in 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to be 2 49745 billion yuan in 2024, 3 12579 billion yuan in 2025, and 4 57858 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 435 44 million yuan in 2024, 513 million yuan in 2025, and 732 87 million yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0 91 yuan in 2024, 1 07 yuan in 2025, and 1 53 yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 6 63% in 2024, 7 33% in 2025, and 9 61% in 2026 [3] - The company's PE is expected to be 26 in 2024, 22 in 2025, and 16 in 2026 [3] - The company's PB is expected to be 1 74 in 2024, 1 63 in 2025, and 1 50 in 2026 [3] Industry Analysis - The company's diamond wire sales volume declined in Q3 2024 due to the downturn in downstream silicon wafer production [2] - The penetration rate of tungsten diamond wire is expected to further increase in 2025, potentially exceeding 50% [2] - The company is actively investing in the construction of tungsten wire production lines during the industry downturn, which is expected to further expand production and establish a leading position in the new technology field of tungsten wire [2]