云铝股份：原铝满产运行，业绩同比显著提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 39.186 billion yuan, up 31.67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.820 billion yuan, up 52.49% year-on-year [2][3]. - The production of alumina remained stable with an increase in prices, while primary aluminum production operated at full capacity, contributing to the overall performance improvement [3]. - The company is enhancing its resource security by acquiring bauxite resources and has established a production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina annually [4]. - The hydropower situation in Yunnan is favorable, which is expected to support continued full production of primary aluminum in Q4 2024, with the potential for green aluminum premiums to gradually materialize [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.301 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.99% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 31.42% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of alumina in Q3 was 3,939 yuan per ton, up 7.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of aluminum was 19,600 yuan per ton, down 4.7% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Production and Sales - In Q3 2024, the company produced 350,200 tons of alumina, maintaining production levels, while primary aluminum production increased by 12% to 797,300 tons [3]. - The company’s sales and pricing of aluminum products increased year-on-year, leading to a significant improvement in operating cash flow [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 51.5 billion, 50.7 billion, and 51.9 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.169 billion, 5.586 billion, and 6.246 billion yuan [5]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from favorable hydropower conditions and the increasing demand for green aluminum, which may enhance profitability in the coming quarters [4].