CJS(600176) 中邮证券·2024-10-28 08:10Company Overview - Latest closing price: 11.21 RMB [1] - Total shares outstanding: 4.003 billion [1] - Total market capitalization: 44.9 billion RMB [1] - 52-week high/low: 13.07 RMB / 8.72 RMB [1] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 42.4% [1] - P/E ratio: 14.74 [1] - Largest shareholder: China National Building Material Co Ltd [1] Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight | Maintain [2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 3.89 billion RMB, up 8.3% YoY [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders: 570 million RMB, down 6.4% YoY [2] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: 530 million RMB, up 49.2% YoY [2] - First three quarters revenue: 11.63 billion RMB, up 1.8% YoY [2] - First three quarters net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.53 billion RMB, down 42.7% YoY [2] - First three quarters non-GAAP net profit: 1.16 billion RMB, down 28.8% YoY [2] Key Insights - Price recovery drives profit improvement, Q4 prices expected to continue rising [3] - Q3 gross margin: 28.18%, up 1.04 pct YoY and 5.61 pct QoQ [3] - Q3 net margin: 15.38%, down 2.33 pct YoY but up 1.08 pct QoQ [3] - Industry inventory remains high, supply-demand balance maintained [3] Financial Projections - 2024 revenue forecast: 15.3 billion RMB, up 2.8% YoY [4] - 2025 revenue forecast: 17.8 billion RMB, up 16.3% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast: 2.21 billion RMB, down 27.4% YoY [4] - 2025 net profit forecast: 2.94 billion RMB, up 33.3% YoY [4] - 2024 P/E ratio: 19X [4] - 2025 P/E ratio: 14X [4] Financial Ratios - 2023A gross margin: 28.0% [8] - 2024E gross margin: 20.5% [8] - 2025E gross margin: 22.6% [8] - 2023A net margin: 20.5% [8] - 2024E net margin: 14.4% [8] - 2025E net margin: 16.5% [8] - 2023A ROE: 10.6% [8] - 2024E ROE: 7.4% [8] - 2025E ROE: 9.2% [8]