开立医疗：年内业绩承压，静待设备更新落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.398 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 109 million yuan, down 66.01% year-on-year [2] - The core business is under pressure, but the implementation of equipment updates is expected to catalyze growth. The domestic medical equipment procurement demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly benefiting imaging products, which are anticipated to gradually materialize in 2025 [2][3] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 66.59%, an increase from 69.41% in 2023 and 67.43% in the first half of 2024, attributed to the impact of domestic policies on high-end products [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.068 billion yuan, 2.526 billion yuan, and 3.031 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.46%, 22.13%, and 19.99% respectively [3][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 202.51 million yuan, 542 million yuan, and 667.06 million yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -55.44%, 167.63%, and 23.07% respectively [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 75.81 for 2024, 28.33 for 2025, and 23.02 for 2026 [4] Expense and Margin Analysis - Sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 459 million yuan, an increase of 30.06% year-on-year, while R&D expenses were 338 million yuan, up 28.33% year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding against the trend, increasing personnel in sales and R&D departments, which is the main reason for the rise in expenses [2] - The operating risk is being reduced, with accounts receivable significantly lowered to 161 million yuan compared to the first half of 2024 [2]