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好未来：超预期，乐观看待后续成长
TALTAL(TAL) 天风证券·2024-10-28 12:47

Investment Rating - 6-month rating: Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's FY25Q2 financial report shows significant growth with net revenue of 620million,a50.4620 million, a 50.4% YoY increase, and operating profit of 48 million, also a 50% YoY increase [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 65million,up2365 million, up 23% YoY, while net income attributable to shareholders was 57 million, a 52% YoY increase [1] - For FY25H1, net revenue was 1.03billion,a50.41.03 billion, a 50.4% YoY increase, with operating profit turning positive at 30 million, and Non-GAAP operating profit surging 220% YoY to 65million[1]−NetincomeattributabletoshareholdersforFY25H1turnedpositiveat65 million [1] - Net income attributable to shareholders for FY25H1 turned positive at 69 million, and Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders surged 165% YoY to 100million[1]−ThegrowthinAI−drivenlearningdeviceshasbeenakeydriverofrevenue,withthecompanyfocusingonprovidinghigh−qualitylearningcontentthroughthesedevices[1]−Thecompanyiscautiouslymanagingitsteachingcenternetworktobalanceoperationalefficiencyandgrowth,aimingtodeliverasuperiorlearningexperiencebothonlineandoffline[1]FinancialPerformanceandForecast−FY25Q2netrevenue:100 million [1] - The growth in AI-driven learning devices has been a key driver of revenue, with the company focusing on providing high-quality learning content through these devices [1] - The company is cautiously managing its teaching center network to balance operational efficiency and growth, aiming to deliver a superior learning experience both online and offline [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - FY25Q2 net revenue: 620 million, up 50.4% YoY [1] - FY25Q2 operating profit: 48million,up5048 million, up 50% YoY [1] - FY25Q2 Non-GAAP operating profit: 65 million, up 23% YoY [1] - FY25Q2 net income attributable to shareholders: 57million,up5257 million, up 52% YoY [1] - FY25Q2 Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders: 74 million, up 26% YoY [1] - FY25H1 net revenue: 1.03billion,up50.41.03 billion, up 50.4% YoY [1] - FY25H1 operating profit: 30 million (turned positive) [1] - FY25H1 Non-GAAP operating profit: 65million,up22065 million, up 220% YoY [1] - FY25H1 net income attributable to shareholders: 69 million (turned positive) [1] - FY25H1 Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders: 100million,up165100 million, up 165% YoY [1] - Revised revenue forecasts for FY25-27: 2.3 billion, 3.4billion,and3.4 billion, and 5.1 billion, respectively (up from previous estimates of 2.1billion,2.1 billion, 2.6 billion, and 3.2billion)[4]−RevisedNon−GAAPnetincomeattributabletoshareholdersforFY25−27:3.2 billion) [4] - Revised Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders for FY25-27: 180 million, 250million,and250 million, and 370 million, respectively (up from previous estimates of 110million,110 million, 220 million, and 410million)[4]−EPSforecastsforFY25−27:410 million) [4] - EPS forecasts for FY25-27: 0.3, 0.4,and0.4, and 0.6, respectively [4] - PE ratios for FY25-27: 37X, 26X, and 18X, respectively [4] Technological Advancements - The company won the first prize in the "Data Element ×" competition in Beijing for its "Large Language Model-Assisted Intelligent Evaluation and Multi-Level Precision Tutoring Key Technology and Application" [2] - The intelligent tutoring technology integrates large language models, AI, big data, and intelligent knowledge graphs to enhance the potential of AI in education [2] - The technology addresses the "impossible triangle" in education by providing personalized, high-quality, and large-scale learning solutions [2] - The company has launched a smart math tutoring tool, "Jiuzhang Suishiwen," which helps students solve math problems by guiding them through the thought process rather than providing direct answers [2][3] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging AI-driven learning devices to drive revenue growth and provide high-quality learning content [1] - It is focusing on balancing operational efficiency and growth in its teaching center network to enhance the learning experience for both online and offline users [1]