TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 国海证券·2024-10-28 15:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][5] Core Views - The decline in aluminum prices has impacted Q3 performance, but Q4 is expected to improve due to rising aluminum and alumina prices [4][5] - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.36% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.4% but a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [3] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,560 yuan/ton, down 975 yuan/ton from Q2 but up 729 yuan/ton year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has multiple growth projects in progress, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 33.7 billion, 35.4 billion, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.22 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan [5][8] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.91, 0.97, and 1.06 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.33, 8.72, and 7.95 [5][8]