兖矿能源：2024年三季报点评：三季度煤炭销量环比上升，业绩环比有提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown growth in coal production and sales, but revenue has been impacted by falling prices [1][3] - The coal business experienced a decline in revenue by 16% due to a 19% drop in average selling price [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve significant production growth in the coming years, with plans to increase coal production to approximately 140 million tons in 2024 [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1066.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114.05 billion yuan, down 26.98% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in the first three quarters was 683.5 yuan/ton, down 19% year-on-year [1][3] Coal Business - Coal production reached 105.81 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 9% year-on-year, while sales were 102.59 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price in Q3 was 656 yuan/ton, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decline [1] Cost Management - The average selling cost of coal decreased to 411 yuan/ton in the first three quarters, down 14% year-on-year, leading to an improvement in gross margin [1][4] - In Q3, the gross margin for the coal business was 42.4%, showing an increase compared to previous quarters [4] Chemical Business - The chemical products segment faced pressure with a production volume of 6.355 million tons, down 2.16% year-on-year, and sales of 5.697 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the unit gross margin for chemical products increased by 5.3% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has acquired significant coal resources and plans to enhance production capacity, targeting a coal output of 300 million tons annually within the next 5-10 years [6][7] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1483.7 billion yuan, 1570.7 billion yuan, and 1639.1 billion yuan respectively, with a slight decline expected in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years [7][8]