WENS FOODSTUFF GROUP CO.(300498) 海通证券·2024-10-29 00:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd (300498) is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Wens Foodstuff Group reported a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.95%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.08 billion yuan [5] - The company's pig farming business showed strong growth, with pig sales reaching 21.56 million heads in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and pig farming costs decreased to 6.9-7 yuan/jin in July 2024, down from 7.4 yuan/jin in the first half of the year [5] - The company announced a dividend plan, distributing 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 990 million yuan, and plans to repurchase shares with a loan of up to 1 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in future development [6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 75.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.56%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.41 billion yuan [5] - The company's pig farming revenue reached 43.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, driven by rising pig prices [5] - The broiler business saw a slight increase in sales volume, with 870 million broilers sold in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, but revenue decreased by 2.6% to 24.46 billion yuan due to lower prices [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.52/1.69/1.97 yuan, with a PE ratio of 16-20 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 24.3-30.4 yuan [7] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 21.0% in 2024, reaching 108.83 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 10.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.6% [8] Industry Comparison - Compared to peers such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and New Hope (000876), Wens Foodstuff Group has a relatively lower PE ratio for 2024 at 12.34 times, indicating potential undervaluation [10] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve significantly to 16.2% in 2024, up from 0.8% in 2023, reflecting better cost control and operational efficiency [10]