NOVEL(002014) 华福证券·2024-10-29 02:12Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the plastic flexible packaging industry, demonstrating stable long-term growth and a commitment to shareholder returns through high dividend payouts [1][4]. - The company has a diversified customer base, with a strong focus on expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [2][3][40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1992, the company specializes in producing vacuum-coated films, multifunctional films, and various types of packaging materials, achieving a revenue of 3.379 billion yuan in 2023, a 2% increase year-on-year [1][14]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a net profit of 408 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [1][14]. Customer Structure and Profitability - The company has a well-diversified customer base, with the top five customers accounting for only 21.8% of sales in 2023, which helps stabilize product pricing and profitability [2][41]. - The gross margin for color printing packaging materials reached 27.4% in 2023, with overall gross margins maintained between 22.2% and 24.7% from 2019 to 2023 [2][20]. Industry Chain Integration and Overseas Expansion - The company is expanding its product offerings and has established a subsidiary to focus on environmentally friendly and functional film materials, contributing to a revenue of 525 million yuan in the film business in 2023, a 14.5% increase [3][14]. - The overseas revenue accounted for 11.3% of total revenue in 2023, with plans to further enhance its presence in Southeast Asia by establishing an office in Thailand [3][45]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 6.3%, 6.3%, and 6.1% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 4%, 13%, and 14% respectively [4]. - The report suggests that the company's strong market position, stable operating style, and high dividend yield underscore its investment value [4].