GWMOTOR(601633) 国信证券·2024-10-29 02:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors achieved a net profit growth of 109% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by product structure optimization and increased exports [1][5]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 142.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 108.7% [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the stability of the company's performance, supported by growth in export business and continuous optimization of product structure [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Great Wall Motors reported revenue of 50.83 billion yuan, with a total vehicle sales volume of 294,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [1][5]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.35 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year and 13.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - The company’s single-vehicle revenue reached a record high of 173,000 yuan in Q3 2024, an increase of 2,900 yuan year-on-year [1][5]. Cost Management - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 4.8%, 2.0%, and 4.0%, respectively, indicating stable cost control [1][5]. - The report notes a slight increase in the sales expense ratio due to new vehicle channel and marketing investments [1][5]. Strategic Developments - Great Wall Motors is advancing its new energy strategy, with product and technology upgrades expected to drive sales growth [1][5]. - The company has launched new models, including the WEY brand and the second-generation Haval H9, which have shown promising sales [1][5]. - The report mentions the establishment of CKD projects in Malaysia and Indonesia, and collaborations in Vietnam, indicating a strong focus on international expansion [1][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Great Wall Motors has been revised upward, with expected net profits of 12.5 billion yuan, 14.79 billion yuan, and 16.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2]. - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.47 yuan, 1.74 yuan, and 2.00 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 19x, 16x, and 14x [1][2].