KELUN PHARMA(002422) 华安证券·2024-10-29 07:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.789 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.64%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.471 billion yuan, up 25.85% year-on-year [1] - The company has shown a significant improvement in its asset structure, with a notable increase in capital reserves by 45.55% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's total [1] - The company’s core product, Lukanasatuzumab (Jiatelai), has received acceptance for a new indication NDA application, which is expected to accelerate its market entry [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the overall gross margin was 52.51%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 31.17%, down 5.85 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the period was 3.275 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.97% year-on-year [1] - The company expects revenues of 23 billion yuan, 25.475 billion yuan, and 27.597 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 10.8%, and 8.3% [3][4] Financial Indicators - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.094 billion yuan, 3.663 billion yuan, and 4.109 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.0%, 18.4%, and 12.2% [3][4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 52.9% in 2024 to 54.2% in 2026 [3][4] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17X, 15X, and 13X respectively [1][3]