火星人：2024Q3业绩点评：业绩承压，期待改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [2][11]. Core Views - The company has a high online market share and is actively supporting online sales and distributor strategies, which are expected to lead to growth that outperforms the industry in the future [2]. - Due to lower-than-expected performance in the first three quarters and intense industry competition, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.10, 0.41, and 0.45 yuan, reflecting significant reductions of -87%, -50%, and -49% from previous estimates [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The target price has been adjusted to 16.40 yuan from the previous 17.41 yuan, based on a cautious approach considering the uncertain recovery in the real estate sector [11]. 2. Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15 million yuan, down 93.22% year-on-year [13]. 3. Performance Under Pressure, Expecting Improvement - The average price of integrated stoves is high, raising the purchasing threshold for consumers, leading to a decline in overall sales volume amid a slow recovery in consumer purchasing power. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 44.06%, down 3.95 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.49%, down 12.64 percentage points year-on-year [14]. - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 28.4%, 8.87%, 7.87%, and -1.28%, respectively, showing increases compared to the previous year [14]. 4. Relatively Abundant Monetary Funds - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 851 million yuan, down 999.2 million yuan year-on-year. Inventory stood at 173 million yuan, down 68 million yuan year-on-year [15]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was -100 million yuan, a decrease of 480 million yuan year-on-year [15].