SCIE(600546) 海通证券·2024-10-29 13:53Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Shanxi Coal International Energy Group (600546) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 production has significantly recovered, with net profit attributable to parent company increasing by 12% QoQ [3] - The company's self-produced coal business saw a 16% increase in production and a 7% increase in sales volume QoQ in Q3 2024, with a 7% decrease in comprehensive selling price and a 12% decrease in cost QoQ [4] - The company's coal trading business maintained a gross margin of around 3% in Q3 2024, with a 6% increase in trading volume QoQ [5] - The company is expected to achieve a dividend payout ratio of 60% in 2024, with a dividend yield of 7.4% [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.9% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 791 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% [3] - The company's self-produced coal business generated a gross profit of 7.22 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, with a gross profit of 2.71 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% [4] Business Segments - The company's self-produced coal output in the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, with a sales volume of 18.82 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16% [4] - The company's coal trading sales volume in the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with a sales volume of 5.38 million tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.8% [5] Valuation and Forecast - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.81 billion yuan in 2024, 3.10 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.96 billion yuan in 2026, with EPS of 1.42 yuan, 1.56 yuan, and 1.49 yuan respectively [6] - The report gives the company a PE ratio of 10-11 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.19-15.61 yuan [6] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the industry is 9.6 times for 2024, 8.9 times for 2025, and 8.5 times for 2026 [9]