Xinjiang Tianfu Energy (600509)2024-10-29 15:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianfu Energy (600509.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter met expectations, with revenue of 6.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [1][2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the sale of carbon emission quotas, while the decline in net profit after deducting non-recurring items is due to adjustments in agricultural electricity prices [2] - The company completed the sale of 700,000 tons of carbon emission quotas in July, contributing 60 million yuan to the third quarter's non-operating income, which was a key factor for the positive growth in net profit [2] - The company is expected to face a revenue impact of approximately 172 million yuan in 2024 due to the reduction in agricultural electricity prices [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 6.745 billion yuan, with a net profit of 494 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 423 million yuan [1] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 2.195 billion yuan, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 125 million yuan [1] Market Performance - As of October 25, 2024, the closing price was 6.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9,584.28 million yuan [3] - The stock has seen a one-year high of 7.08 yuan and a low of 4.26 yuan [3] Business Outlook - The company is the only listed platform for the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' power industry chain, and it is anticipated that the electricity pricing mechanism will be further streamlined [4] - The company is expected to lose approximately 260 million yuan in revenue in 2024 due to the lack of capacity pricing collection [4] - The company has a significant connection with the photovoltaic industry, and its performance is closely tied to the economic development of the region [4] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 605 million yuan, 741 million yuan, and 843 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 22%, and 14% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]