青岛啤酒24Q3点评：控货去库存，积极备战明年

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Tsingtao Brewery [1] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 8.89 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.35 billion, down 9.0% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 revenue was RMB 28.96 billion, down 6.5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.69 billion, up 2.0% YoY [1] - The company is actively controlling inventory and preparing for next year, with channel inventory continuing to decline [1] - High-end product sales outperformed overall sales, with Q3 high-end product volume up 4.1% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points YoY to 42.1% in Q3, driven by cost savings [1] - Sales expenses increased due to offline promotions and Olympic advertising, leading to a slight decline in net profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is expected to be RMB 32.125 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.35 billion, up 1.9% YoY [2] - 2025E revenue is forecasted to grow 2.9% YoY to RMB 33.065 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.92 billion, up 13.1% YoY [2] - 2026E revenue is projected to increase 2.8% YoY to RMB 34.004 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.425 billion, up 10.3% YoY [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.6% in 2024E to 44.6% in 2026E [2] - ROE is forecasted to be 19.9% in 2024E, declining to 16.8% in 2026E [2] Operational Highlights - Q3 2024 sales volume decreased by 5.1% YoY, while average selling price (ASP) declined by 0.2% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 sales volume decreased by 7.0% YoY, with ASP increasing by 0.5% YoY [1] - High-end product sales volume in Q1-3 2024 decreased by 6.2% YoY, but still outperformed overall sales [1] - The company's cost savings helped offset increased marketing expenses, supporting profitability [1] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - Current stock price implies a P/E ratio of 21.48x for 2024E, declining to 17.23x by 2026E [2] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 12.44x in 2024E to 8.61x in 2026E [2] - The company's focus on inventory control and cost management is expected to support recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1] - Maintain "Buy" rating based on the company's strategic initiatives and improving profitability outlook [1]