国药股份：Q3业绩较Q2环比改善，稳健增长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows improvement compared to Q2, indicating stable growth prospects [2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 38.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.48 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing concentration in the pharmaceutical distribution industry, which may enhance its market share [4] Financial Performance Summary - Quarterly revenue for 2024: Q1 at 12.12 billion yuan, Q2 at 12.63 billion yuan, and Q3 at 13.27 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.0%, -2.2%, and +7.1% respectively [2] - Quarterly net profit attributable to shareholders: Q1 at 460 million yuan, Q2 at 540 million yuan, and Q3 at 480 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.9%, -5.1%, and +0.6% respectively [2] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.0%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has maintained good cost control, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios showing slight variations [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revised profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 2.21 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.74 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.0%, 11.4%, and 11.1% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 11X for 2024, 10X for 2025, and 9X for 2026 [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the distribution of narcotic and psychotropic drugs and is expected to maintain steady growth in this segment [4]