AHHL(600761) 申万宏源·2024-10-30 03:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli (600761) [5][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under pressure due to weak domestic demand, although export sales remain strong [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.41 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, and a net profit of 1.10 billion yuan, up 11.63% year-on-year [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand as the macroeconomic environment improves, alongside continued growth in overseas sales [6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 29, 2024: 17.85 yuan - One-year high/low: 28.50/15.23 yuan - Market capitalization: 15,899 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 4.40 billion yuan, down 0.30% year-on-year and down 6.46% quarter-on-quarter - Q3 2024 net profit: 298 million yuan, down 9.18% year-on-year and down 27.93% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024: 21.53%, up 1.29 percentage points year-on-year; net margin: 8.82%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Future Projections - Revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.43 billion, 1.60 billion, and 1.87 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [6]. - Projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11, 10, and 8 times respectively, indicating a lower valuation compared to peers [6][10]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its marketing system domestically and accelerating global expansion, with over 300 overseas agents covering more than 150 countries [6]. - The domestic market saw a decline in sales volume, while exports increased by 20.4%, indicating a strong international competitive position [6].