ACC(600585) 平安证券·2024-10-30 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Conch Cement (600585.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 68.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.20 billion yuan, down 40.1% year-on-year [3] - The cement industry faced pressure on both volume and price due to declining demand from real estate and weakening infrastructure needs, leading to a year-on-year decline in performance [4] - There is an expectation for profit recovery in Q4 2024, supported by successful price increases in the Yangtze River Delta region and a slight improvement in demand [4] - The company has a strong cash position with net cash flow from operating activities of 10.35 billion yuan, exceeding the previous year's 9.70 billion yuan [4] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 140,999 in 2023 to 171,223 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.8%, 5.6%, 7.8%, and 6.7% respectively [5] - Net profit (in million yuan) is expected to decline from 10,430 in 2023 to 9,112 in 2024, before recovering to 11,910 in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is projected to decrease from 16.6% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 15.5% by 2026 [5] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to be 15.2 in 2024, decreasing to 11.6 by 2026 [5] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to decrease from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.55 billion yuan in 2024, before gradually increasing to 17.15 billion yuan in 2026 [8] - The company’s cash position remains strong, with cash on hand of 75.03 billion yuan at the end of the reporting period, significantly higher than interest-bearing liabilities of 30.45 billion yuan [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the cement supply-demand dynamics will improve in 2025, driven by increased infrastructure spending and potential policy support from the government [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the cement industry, maintaining cost control and offering attractive valuation and dividend yield [6]