彭博：中国央行刺激政策恐对中资银行净息差造成严重影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for Chinese banks due to the anticipated narrowing of net interest margins and declining income as a result of the People's Bank of China's stimulus policies [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent stimulus measures have not effectively revived GDP growth or loan demand, with the third quarter GDP growth at 4.6%, the slowest in six quarters [3]. - The average loan yield for major banks is expected to drop by over 50 basis points next year, following a cumulative reduction of 60 basis points for the one-year LPR and 35 basis points for the five-year LPR this year [2][3]. - Despite a slight increase in M2 growth to 6.8% in September, the overall loan growth remains below historical seasonal patterns, with household loans growing by 2.4% and corporate loans by 8.6% [3]. Summary by Sections Loan and Deposit Outlook - The report notes that the cost of time deposits has decreased, but the loan market quotation rate (LPR) has been lowered, leading to a projected significant decline in loan yields for banks in 2025 [2]. - The report anticipates that the average net interest margin for 11 covered Chinese banks may narrow more than the market expects, by over 6 basis points [3]. Economic Indicators - The report states that the retail sales growth in September was only 3.2%, influenced by government subsidy policies for appliances and vehicles [3]. - The total loan balance in September was 6.7% higher than at the end of 2023, compared to a 9.6% increase in the same period last year [3].