彭博：中国房地产市场触底反弹尚需时间，尽管出台刺激政策

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese housing market, suggesting that the rebound in new residential sales may be temporary due to long-term structural challenges [3]. Core Insights - The stimulus policies introduced in September, such as lowering the minimum down payment for second homes and relaxing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, are expected to provide a short-term boost to new residential sales in Q4 [3]. - Despite a significant increase in new residential sales in first-tier cities, smaller cities may not have reached their bottom yet, with sales in first-tier cities recovering to 86% of their previous peak in 2021, while smaller cities are only at 44%-57% of their 2020 peak [3][4]. - Demand is shifting from smaller cities to first-tier cities, with first-tier cities expected to benefit the most from recent stimulus policies, as seen by a 16% year-on-year increase in new home sales in first-tier cities compared to a 9% decline in strong second-tier cities [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Recovery - New home sales are showing signs of recovery, with an average year-on-year increase of 11% in 11 first-tier and strong second-tier cities from October 1 to 18, with Fuzhou, Shanghai, and Xiamen experiencing the largest rebounds of 54%-71% [6]. - Despite some cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu reporting declines of 42%-51%, these figures may improve as recent purchase registrations are processed, particularly in Shenzhen where new home subscriptions surged by 664% during the first week of October [6].