珠江啤酒：3Q24销量增速亮眼，费用投放力度加大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong sales growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 19.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.1 billion, up 10.6% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 48.9 billion, reflecting a 7.4% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to maintain a trend of increasing both volume and price, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0.36, 0.42, and 0.48, representing year-on-year growth of 27.4%, 16.4%, and 14.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 48.9 billion, a 7.4% increase year-on-year. Beer sales volume increased by 2.7% to 1.182 million tons, while the average price per ton rose by 4.5% to RMB 4,135. High-end beer sales grew by 14.8% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 19.0 billion, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 4.7% and 2.1% respectively [4] Cost and Profitability - The company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a reduction in cost per ton by 2.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024. The gross margin improved to 49.3% for the first three quarters and 49.8% for Q3 2024, reflecting increases of 3.8 and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively [4] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.5%, and for Q3 2024, it was 16.1%, both showing improvements year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its upward trend in both sales volume and pricing, driven by product upgrades and increased market penetration in the southern China region. The ongoing marketing reforms and brand strategy are anticipated to support this growth [4] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 indicates a strong growth trajectory, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.6, 22.0, and 19.2 times [4]