华鲁恒升：检修有影响，竞争加剧进一步优化成本

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.18 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.049 billion yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3, the company faced production impacts due to maintenance, leading to a revenue decline of 17.43% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit down 32.27% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost-saving measures and technical optimizations following maintenance activities [2]. - The coal prices remained stable, but industry competition has created pricing pressures, resulting in a decrease in gross margin to 17.56% in Q3 [2]. - The company is focusing on the implementation of the Jingzhou project, which is anticipated to optimize the existing production structure and reduce costs [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q3 2024 revenue was 25.18 billion yuan, a 30.16% increase year-on-year; net profit was 3.049 billion yuan, a 4.16% increase year-on-year [2]. - Q3 revenue was 8.205 billion yuan, a 17.43% increase year-on-year; net profit was 0.825 billion yuan, a 32.27% decrease year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - Maintenance activities affected production for about 20 days, leading to a decline in output across various product lines [2]. - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and optimizing technology following maintenance [2]. - Coal prices remained stable, but increased supply from new capacities has pressured product prices [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s 2024 profit forecast has been lowered by 11%, with expected revenues of 33.2 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 43.4 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [3]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 4.04 billion yuan, 5.25 billion yuan, and 6.36 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.9 yuan, 2.5 yuan, and 3.0 yuan for 2024-2026 [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 12.2, 9.4, and 7.7 for the respective years [3].