CPIC(601601) 华创证券·2024-10-31 00:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 46.88 CNY, compared to the current price of 37.19 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 38.31 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.5%. The new business value (NBV) for life insurance grew by 37.9% to 14.24 billion CNY [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in new business momentum in Q3, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in new insurance business, driven by improvements in margin and a favorable policy environment [2]. - The agent channel continues to be a key driver for new business growth, with a 16.3% increase in new insurance business from this channel [2]. - The property insurance segment showed resilience with a 7.7% increase in original premiums, led by non-auto insurance growth of 12.2% [2]. - Investment performance improved significantly, with total investment returns rising by 2.3 percentage points to 4.7% (annualized) in Q3, contributing to the overall profit growth [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 323.95 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.6% expected in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 42.43 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a substantial increase of 55.6% compared to 2023 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 4.4 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4 [3]. Business Performance - The life insurance segment reported a premium income of 230.06 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 3.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company’s investment assets reached 25,842.75 billion CNY by Q3 2024, up 14.9% from the end of the previous year [2]. - The agent channel's core workforce increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with new personnel growing by 15.5%, indicating effective agent reforms [2]. Market Comparison - The report notes that China Pacific Insurance's premium growth outpaced that of major listed insurance companies, particularly in the non-auto insurance sector [2].