TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 国金证券·2024-10-31 02:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co Ltd (600438 SH) [1][2] Core Views - Tongwei Co Ltd reported revenue of 68 3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 3 97 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24 5 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year, and a net loss of 844 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses compared to Q2 [1] - The company's polysilicon cash cost decreased significantly in Q3 due to lower electricity prices during the wet season and a drop in industrial silicon prices [1] - Tongwei Co Ltd is expected to increase its polysilicon nominal capacity to 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with low-cost advanced capacity helping to reduce overall production costs [2] - The company is accelerating its battery capacity restructuring, with TNC capacity expected to exceed 100GW by the end of 2024, and new HJT, XBC, and perovskite battery pilot lines are already in use [2] - The module business is steadily progressing, with new market developments in South Africa and the UAE, and multiple orders from well-known customers, which are expected to provide new performance increments [2] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been adjusted to -5 05 billion yuan, 5 03 billion yuan, and 7 68 billion yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 2025/2026 PE ratios of 26/17 times [2] Financial Performance - Tongwei Co Ltd's revenue in 2021 was 63 491 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8 208 billion yuan [4] - In 2022, the company's revenue increased by 124 3% to 142 423 billion yuan, with a net profit of 25 726 billion yuan [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 139 104 billion yuan, a decrease of 2 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13 574 billion yuan [4] - The 2024 revenue forecast is 108 343 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 1% year-on-year, with a net loss of 6 051 billion yuan [4] - The 2025 revenue forecast is 135 326 billion yuan, an increase of 24 9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5 051 billion yuan [4] - The 2026 revenue forecast is 156 874 billion yuan, an increase of 15 9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7 675 billion yuan [4] Market and Industry Analysis - The polysilicon industry is accelerating its clearing process under profit pressure, with domestic polysilicon production from July to September 2024 at 130,000-140,000 tons per month, significantly lower than the previous peak of 190,000 tons [2] - Tongwei Co Ltd's 200,000-ton polysilicon project in Yunnan was successfully put into operation in May 2024, and the 200,000-ton project in Baotou is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2024 [2] - The company's comprehensive leading battery layout is expected to enjoy a premium for new technologies, with 38GW PERC capacity already fully upgraded and 16GW in Meishan and 25GW in Shuangliu TNC battery capacity expected to be released by the end of 2024 [2]