中金公司：杠杆提升，投行承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.449 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.858 billion yuan, down 37.97% year-on-year [1] - The company's leverage ratio increased to 5.18 times by the end of Q3 2024, up from 4.97 times at the end of H1 2024, indicating a recovery in asset scale [1] - The wealth management business is positioned well within the industry, with a stable product scale of over 340 billion yuan, and the company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the A-share market [1][5] - The investment income, including fair value changes, has become a major growth point for the company's revenue [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%, and a net profit of 630 million yuan, down 39.82% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue breakdown for Q3 shows brokerage at 17.43%, investment banking at 17.22%, asset management at 6.23%, interest income at -8.36%, and investment income at 70.75% [1] Business Segments - The brokerage business is expected to recover as client funds slightly increased, with deposits reaching 72.951 billion yuan, up 18.84% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The investment banking segment remains under pressure, with a significant decline in IPO underwriting and equity refinancing [1][5] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, lowering the net profit estimates to 4.561 billion yuan, 5.132 billion yuan, and 5.565 billion yuan, with respective reductions of 13.96%, 13.54%, and 13.26% [1][5] - The company is expected to benefit from new regulatory frameworks and policies that support capital markets, enhancing its operational flexibility and performance [1]