AVIC SAC(600760) 国金证券·2024-10-31 02:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][27]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure in the short term due to the progress of contract signing, with expectations for recovery in equipment construction demand [4][5]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic aerospace defense equipment sector, with a complete model spectrum that establishes competitive advantages. The recovery in aerospace equipment demand and the upcoming release of new models are expected to drive growth [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 25.298 billion (down 27% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.818 billion (down 23.1% year-on-year). In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.673 billion (down 68% year-on-year and down 69.7% quarter-on-quarter), with a net profit of 199 million (down 77.1% year-on-year and down 77.9% quarter-on-quarter) [4][12]. - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the impact of contract signing progress, with established demand for related products not being fulfilled on schedule [5][12]. Operational Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.5% (up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year), and the net profit margin was 7.2% (up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year). In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 12.2% (up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), and the net profit margin was 5.4% (down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, down 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) [14][16]. - The company’s inventory increased significantly, reaching 11.489 billion at the end of Q3 2024, up 59.11% from the end of Q2 2024, likely due to the impact of product delivery schedules [5][14]. Construction and Expansion - The company’s construction in progress increased to 1.457 billion at the end of Q3 2024, up 36.09% from the end of Q2 2024, indicating a ramp-up in capacity to meet new demand [5][18]. - The company’s contract liabilities reached 5.814 billion at the end of Q3 2024, an increase of 96.94% from the end of Q2 2024, reflecting the issuance of some orders [5][19]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.78 billion, 4.695 billion, and 5.808 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.7%, 24.2%, and 23.7%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 34, 28, and 22 times [5][7].