CHIFENG GOLD(600988) 华泰证券·2024-10-31 02:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. with a target price of RMB 24.65 [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 2.027 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.88% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 395 million, up 89.83% year-on-year but down 22.61% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.93%, and a net profit of RMB 1.105 billion, up 112.59% year-on-year [1][2]. - The production and sales of mineral gold slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, impacting the company's performance. However, the cost remained stable, with Q3 sales cost at RMB 281.55 per gram [2][1]. - The report highlights that gold prices have long-term upward potential, and gold stocks still hold investment value, especially with the upcoming U.S. elections and rising inflation concerns [2][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 mineral gold production and sales were 10.75 tons and 10.95 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 5.05% and 4.95%. Q3 production and sales were 3.20 tons and 3.36 tons, showing a slight decline [2]. - The sales cost for mineral gold in Q1-Q3 was RMB 281.55 per gram, with Q3 costs remaining stable at RMB 272.75 per gram [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts with expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at RMB 1.04, RMB 1.51, and RMB 1.78, respectively. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 16.32 for 2025 [3][4]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately RMB 33.262 billion, with a closing price of RMB 19.99 as of October 30 [5]. Market Context - The report notes that gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, particularly with the upcoming U.S. elections [2][1].