Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber (688295) 中泰证券·2024-10-31 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongfu Shenying is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is facing pressure from weak demand growth, leading to a decline in average prices. However, it is taking multiple measures to enhance competitiveness, including increasing sales efforts and expanding customer base [1][2] - The company is expected to see a rebound in carbon fiber sales as terminal application fields continue to expand, and it is focusing on high-end product output to increase profit margins [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue: The company reported a revenue of 2,259 million in 2023, with a projected decline to 1,646 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,001 million in 2025 and 2,517 million in 2026 [1][2] - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly from 318 million in 2023 to 21 million in 2024, before rebounding to 130 million in 2025 and 297 million in 2026 [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to decrease from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.02 in 2024, with a recovery to 0.14 in 2025 and 0.33 in 2026 [1][2] - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is expected to decline from 0.27 in 2023 to 0.30 in 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.58 in 2025 and 0.90 in 2026 [1][2] Market and Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the domestic carbon fiber apparent consumption has decreased by approximately 12% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand. The average price of carbon fiber is also under pressure, with estimates suggesting a continued decline [1][2] - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through various measures, including increasing the output of high-end products and expanding the sales volume of lower-tier products while maintaining stable pricing [1][2] - The report notes that the company has successfully developed T700 grade carbon fiber and is making progress in expanding its production capacity, which is expected to support future growth [1][2]