赣锋锂业（002460）：锂价下跌，公司三季度业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 35.09 RMB [6][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to a decline in lithium prices, with Q3 revenue at 4.336 billion RMB, down 42.46% year-over-year and 4.29% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million RMB, down 24.85% year-over-year but up 137.32% quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - The company is considered an industry leader, and it is expected to be among the first to release profits once lithium prices bottom out [2][6]. - The report highlights that the company is entering a period of intensive production with several projects nearing completion, including the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina and the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin was 9.33%, a decrease of 6.61 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to a drop in the average price of lithium carbonate to 80,000 RMB per ton, down 24.46% quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The company reported a total revenue of 13.925 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, down 45.78% year-over-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 640 million RMB, down 110.66% year-over-year [2][6]. Production and Projects - The Cauchari-Olaroz project is currently producing at about 70% of its designed capacity, with plans to produce 20,000 to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024 [4]. - The company is actively adjusting its project focus based on market demand, including a joint venture with Jiangxi Shenghua to establish a 100,000 tons/year lithium dihydrogen phosphate production capacity [4]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a long-term oversupply of lithium due to ongoing expansions and new projects from large low-cost mines, suggesting that lithium prices may continue to fluctuate as they seek a bottom [5][6]. - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to the impact of falling lithium prices, with projected book values per share (BPS) of 23.02, 23.39, and 24.32 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7].