ECOVACS(603486) 申万宏源·2024-10-31 09:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit fell short of expectations in 2024Q1-Q3, with revenue declining by 3% YoY to RMB 10.226 billion and net profit increasing by 2% YoY to RMB 615 million [4] - Q3 performance was particularly weak, with revenue down 4% YoY to RMB 3.25 billion and net profit plunging 69% YoY to RMB 6 million [4] - The company's domestic sales were under pressure in Q3 due to the off-season, but a recovery is expected in Q4 [5] - The company has adjusted its product strategy since 23H2, focusing on cost reduction and product portfolio optimization [5] - Gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points in Q3, driven by higher sales of high-margin products [5] Financial Performance - The company's 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was RMB 10.226 billion, down 2.9% YoY [7] - Net profit for 2024Q1-Q3 was RMB 615 million, up 1.9% YoY [7] - The company's gross margin was 48.4% in 2024Q1-Q3, up from 47.5% in 2023 [7] - ROE was 8.8% in 2024Q1-Q3, down from 9.3% in 2023 [7] Market Data - The company's closing price on October 30, 2024 was RMB 51.89 [2] - The company's price-to-book ratio was 4.3 [2] - The company's dividend yield was 0.58% [2] - The company's market capitalization was RMB 29.536 billion [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 3.5% in 2024 to RMB 16.04 billion, 15.8% in 2025 to RMB 18.576 billion, and 9.4% in 2026 to RMB 20.329 billion [7] - Net profit is forecast to increase 90.1% in 2024 to RMB 1.163 billion, 23.1% in 2025 to RMB 1.433 billion, and 19.9% in 2026 to RMB 1.718 billion [7] - EPS is projected to be RMB 2.04 in 2024, RMB 2.52 in 2025, and RMB 3.02 in 2026 [7] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 25 in 2024, 21 in 2025, and 17 in 2026 [7] Product Performance - The company's robot vacuum sales are expected to decline by about 10% in 2024, while floor washer sales are forecast to grow 11% [5] - The T50 model has become a bestseller, while the X8 model has also performed well [5] - The company's overseas sales have shown growth in Europe, but the US market remains challenging due to Amazon sales restrictions [5]