中远海能：价格反弹慢于预期，下调盈利预测，大股东增持提振信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 3.415 billion yuan, down 8.05% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 3.349 billion yuan, up 0.77% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to falling freight rates for oil tankers, with the average freight rate for VLCCs dropping by 38% from the previous quarter [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, which is approximately 40.3% of the net profit for the first half of 2024 [3] - The major shareholder, China Ocean Shipping Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by no less than 679 million yuan and no more than 1.358 billion yuan, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3] - The supply side is expected to continue contracting, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [3] - The profit forecast has been revised downwards due to weaker-than-expected demand, with net profit estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 4.5 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's net profit was 808 million yuan, down 41.03% quarter-on-quarter and down 10.93% year-on-year [3] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.547 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.5% [4] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 29.4% in 2024, increasing to 35.8% by 2026 [4] Market Conditions - The average freight rate for VLCCs in Q3 2024 was approximately 35,000-36,000 USD/day, slightly above the market average [3] - The global order book represents 8% of the current fleet, indicating limited new capacity coming online [3] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, reflecting a commitment to return value to shareholders [3] - The major shareholder's planned increase in stake is seen as a positive signal for the market [3]