云铝股份：产能利用率显著提升，现金奶牛亦有成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807) with a target price of 14.81 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its capacity utilization, leading to growth in cash flow [1][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 39.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue of 14.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.4% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 39.19 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.7% and 52.5% respectively [2][3]. - The third quarter results showed a revenue of 14.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.30 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 31.4% [2][3]. Production and Capacity - The production volumes for the first three quarters of 2024 were as follows: alumina at 1.073 million tons, carbon products at 599,000 tons, primary aluminum at 2.148 million tons, and aluminum alloys and processed products at 910,000 tons, with primary aluminum showing a significant year-on-year increase of 26.3% [3]. - The report notes that the company has accelerated the resumption of primary aluminum production due to improved power supply conditions in Yunnan province, resulting in a noticeable increase in capacity utilization [3]. Cost and Profitability - The overall expense ratio for the first three quarters was 1.28%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a low level [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 14.65%, down 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter margin at 13.58%, reflecting a decline due to pressure on both costs and selling prices [3]. Financial Health - As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company reported a cash balance of 8.20 billion yuan, an increase of 4.23 billion yuan year-on-year, and a low debt-to-asset ratio of 25.0% [3]. - The company’s long-term and short-term borrowings were 2.27 billion yuan and 30 million yuan respectively, showing a decrease compared to the previous year [3]. Future Outlook - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.87 billion yuan, 5.41 billion yuan, and 5.84 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The long-term development trend of the company is viewed positively, supporting the "Buy" rating [3].