Shanghai Bloom Technology (603325) 国海证券·2024-10-31 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows a year-on-year improvement, with revenue from downstream petrochemical projects increasing due to better acceptance progress and confirmed orders [2][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 581 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 23.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 169 million yuan, down 4.45% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue reached 214 million yuan, an increase of 9.25% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, up 60.20% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a high level of contract liabilities, amounting to 2.444 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, which provides assurance for future performance as downstream projects are gradually accepted and revenue is confirmed [2][5]. - The company maintains good liquidity and cash flow, with a cash balance of 668 million yuan and a net cash flow from operating activities of 445 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.54%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 33.14%, up 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking historical highs for both metrics [3][6]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.31%, up 1.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 29.14%, an increase of 5.82 percentage points year-on-year [3][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 1.303 billion yuan, 2.225 billion yuan, and 2.730 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 296 million yuan, 475 million yuan, and 566 million yuan [6][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16, 10, and 8 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][7]. Market Trends - The acceleration of large-scale integrated refining and chemical projects, such as the Yulong Island project, is expected to benefit the demand for large-scale equipment in the upstream sector [5][6]. - The company’s products are integral to key projects like Yulong and Baofeng, which are expected to enhance the revenue recognition pace as these projects progress [5][6].