AKL(603722) 开源证券·2024-10-31 14:58Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's COC (Cyclic Olefin Copolymer) has officially entered trial production, marking a critical step in its industrialization process [5] - Despite short-term operational pressures, the long-term prospects for COC industrialization are promising, supporting the "Buy" rating [3] - The company received a government subsidy of 110 million yuan to accelerate the industrialization of high-end materials [5] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 365 million yuan, down 11.85% year-on-year [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -6.785 million yuan, turning from profit to loss compared to the same period last year [3] - Gross margin declined due to intensified competition and lower product prices, particularly in the polyetheramine segment [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026 is 6 million, 96 million, and 183 million yuan, respectively, with EPS of 0.06, 1.01, and 1.92 yuan per share [3] Product Performance - Sales of fatty amines and optical materials (automotive coatings) were 14,410 tons and 4,990 tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8.6% and +29.8% [4] - Average prices for fatty amines and optical materials were 14,842 yuan/ton and 30,071 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down 14.3% and 17.3% year-on-year [4] - The company's polyetheramine prices remain higher than the market average due to strong R&D capabilities and product structure adjustments [4] COC Industrialization Progress - The COC trial production plan was approved on September 21, 2024, and has officially entered the trial production phase [5] - The company's subsidiary received approval for "COC bottles for injectable drugs," marking progress in the pharmaceutical packaging sector [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 509 million, 846 million, and 1.216 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.2%, 66.2%, and 43.7% [6] - Gross margins for 2024-2026 are expected to be 10.0%, 21.9%, and 25.9%, respectively [6] - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.8%, 11.7%, and 18.8% [6]