Focus Media(002027) 华安证券·2024-10-31 15:31Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Focus Media [1] Core Views - Stable earnings growth and continued overseas expansion [1] - 2024 Q3 revenue reached 3.294 billion yuan (yoy +4.30%), net profit attributable to parent company was 1.475 billion yuan (yoy +7.59%) [2] - Gross margin remained high at 68.2% in Q3, net margin increased 1.4pct yoy to 44.8% [2] - Overseas business expansion progressing well, covering over 100 major cities in 5 countries with 175,000+ screen terminals [2] - Forecasted 2024-2026 revenue: 12.871/13.950/14.880 billion yuan, net profit: 5.290/5.784/6.183 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue growth: 8.1%, net profit growth: 9.6% [3] - 2024E gross margin: 65.2%, ROE: 23.0% [3] - 2024E EPS: 0.37 yuan, P/E: 19.76x [3] - 2024E operating cash flow: 5.484 billion yuan [5] - 2024E net debt ratio: 26.8%, current ratio: 3.12 [6] Business Operations - Elevator media business benefited from industry recovery and Olympic advertising [2] - Digital technology enabling overseas expansion [2] - Sales expense ratio in Q3: 19.0%, management expense ratio: 4.0% [2] - Investment income and other income accounted for 7.4% and 3.8% of revenue respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 16.08x [6] - 2024E P/B: 4.54x [6] - 2024E total asset turnover: 0.48 [6] - 2024E accounts receivable turnover: 7.53 [6] Financial Position - 2024E total assets: 295.96 billion yuan [4] - 2024E cash position: 8.976 billion yuan [4] - 2024E liabilities: 62.60 billion yuan, liability ratio: 21.2% [4][6] - 2024E equity attributable to parent company: 230.19 billion yuan [4]